Friday, March 02, 2007

Dien Bien Phu in Iraq

The British plan to leave Iraq could leave the U.S. in a precarious position. The part of Iraq that the British currently holds contains the supply lines for Americans. Leaving protection of America’s supply lines to Iraqis offers a good place for an ambush.

If it looks like a good place for an ambush, it usually is.

Not that Americans couldn’t retake Basra or re-supply through Kuwait or even re-supply by air, but a humiliating political defeat would be handed to the Bush administration if they had to do so. Given the current political environment, any major setback could mean the end to any meaningful continuation of Americans in Iraq. The “New Way Forward” would appear neither new nor forward.

Whenever a certain faction in Iraq determines that it is in their best interest for the Americans to leave, the area vacated by the British would be an ideal place to strike. Eventually, some group is going to feel that can take power, and seize the government. Americans will be in the way and a plan to get rid of the Americans will have to be exercised.

The American military has no doubt taken that their back door is in shaky hands into account and planned accordingly. However, the political arm of the administration has shown repeatedly, they cannot interpret intelligence, cannot respond to real world events in a timely manner, and most importantly, cannot own up to their own shortcomings, and unlike our highly professional military, plan accordingly.

Their only hope: somehow blame the liberals for which they do have an arsenal with which to respond or a white girl will go missing.